India's wholesale price inflation surged to 3.88 per cent in March, marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase, primarily driven by a sharp rise in crude petroleum, natural gas, and manufactured items amidst the West Asia crisis.
The ongoing oil price decline is mainly a result of oversupply in the global market
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economy to grow at 6.3 per cent even if crude oil prices average USD 130 per barrel in the current fiscal year, highlighting the nation's resilience amidst the West Asia crisis and strong commitment to fiscal consolidation.
The government on Tuesday increased the windfall profit tax on crude oil produced in the country and reduced the levy on exports of diesel. The tax, levied in the form of Special Additional Excise Duty or SAED, on domestically produced crude oil was increased to Rs 9,800 per tonne from Rs 9,050 a tonne, according to an official notification. SAED on the export of diesel was reduced to Rs 2 per litre from Rs 4 a litre and on jet fuel or ATF to nil from Rs 1, the notification said.
Oil marketing companies (OMCs), paint manufacturers, tyre producers, and aviation stocks witnessed significant gains as Brent crude oil prices slipped below $70 per barrel. The price drop came after a double blow: The US imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, including energy imports, and OPEC+ - the group of major oil-producing nations including Russia - announced an output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, the first such hike since 2022.
An oil tanker carrying Saudi crude safely reached Mumbai after crossing the war-hit Strait of Hormuz with its tracking system briefly switched off.
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
Analysts are revising down India Inc's financial year 2026-27 (FY27) earnings growth forecasts, citing persistently high crude oil prices above $100 a barrel due to the West Asia conflict, which is expected to dent corporate financial performance in the coming quarters.
The United States has announced it will not renew sanctions exemptions for the purchase of Russian and Iranian oil, ending a 30-day waiver that allowed some countries, including India, to continue importing Russian oil despite sanctions related to the Ukraine war.
'If the war continue for a longer period of time, it is just a matter of time before the government will pass on some of the price increases.'
State-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) are reportedly incurring losses of Rs 18 per litre on petrol and Rs 35 per litre on diesel, as they continue to absorb rising crude oil costs without increasing retail prices. This situation is leading to expectations of a fuel price hike after upcoming state elections.
Analysts warn that global markets are significantly underpricing the risk of an oil price shock, with Brent crude potentially soaring to $150 per barrel if the West Asia conflict escalates or damages critical oil and gas infrastructure. This could lead to severe inflation and economic repercussions, particularly for import-dependent nations like India.
S&P Global Ratings warns that a sustained rise in crude oil prices to $130 per barrel could significantly slow India's economic growth, weaken fiscal metrics, and strain corporate and banking sector performance, potentially reducing growth by up to 80 basis points.
Indian equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rallied in early trade, driven by reports of a second round of talks between the US and Iran, which are fostering hopes for a resolution to the West Asia conflict, coupled with Brent crude oil prices trading below the USD 100 per barrel mark.
Nayara Energy, a private fuel retailer in India, has increased petrol and diesel prices following a surge in global oil prices due to Middle East tensions. This move contrasts with state-owned retailers who continue to freeze prices.
The revised projection comes after a 17% rise in the April-June.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed marginally higher, breaking a four-day losing streak, despite elevated crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The market saw a temporary pause in panic selling, though cautious sentiment persists.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have been increased for the second time in a week, following a long freeze on revisions. The increase comes as global crude prices surge and state-run oil firms look to recoup losses.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, snapped a three-day rally, tumbling nearly 1 per cent due to heavy selling in IT stocks, a jump in crude oil prices, foreign fund outflows, and fears of prolonged instability in West Asia.
Indian investors have seen their wealth erode by a staggering Rs 16.77 lakh crore over four trading sessions, as the markets faced deep losses driven by elevated crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions, persistent foreign fund outflows, and a record-low rupee.
Air India group announces fuel surcharges on domestic and international flights due to rising Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices, following the government's decision to cap domestic ATF price hikes.
Indian stock markets are set to be influenced by ongoing developments in the US-Iran conflict, fluctuations in crude oil prices, and the latest quarterly earnings reports from major corporates, with foreign investor activity also playing a crucial role.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant sell-off, with the Sensex tumbling over 1,300 points, driven by escalating crude oil prices due to US-Iran tensions and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for austerity measures, which amplified investor concerns about India's economic outlook.
Indian oil marketing companies are incurring significant losses, selling petrol at a Rs 14 per litre loss and diesel at Rs 18 per litre, as elevated global crude oil prices, exacerbated by the West Asia crisis, outpace capped retail fuel rates, according to rating agency Icra.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty experienced volatility due to conflicting developments in West Asia, including reports of the Strait of Hormuz closure, which led to a rebound in crude oil prices and heightened investor concerns about supply disruptions and inflation.
The Indian rupee appreciated by 23 paise to settle at 92.91 against the US dollar, driven by a weakening American currency, retreating crude oil prices, and renewed foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows amid increasing hopes of easing geopolitical tensions.
Indian equity benchmark indices experienced a significant drop in early trade, with the BSE Sensex falling over 525 points and the NSE Nifty down more than 164 points, primarily due to rising crude oil prices and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict.
Indian equity markets experienced a significant decline in early trade, with the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty dropping, as escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia and a surge in global oil prices dampened investor sentiment. Track Sensex, Nifty50 movement and key market drivers for May 8, 2026.
Indian markets on Dalal Street rallied sharply as easing tensions in the US-Iran conflict and stable oil prices boosted sentiment. Track Nifty50 and BSE Sensex performance and key global triggers.
The government has to take a call on reducing or retaining the excise rate.
State-run oil-marketing companies (OMCs) are unlikely to significantly raise petrol and diesel prices despite crude oil nearing $100 a barrel, leading to potential margin pressure, while CLSA analysts project a 65 per cent upside for ONGC's stock.
The Indian government has imposed a new windfall gains tax of Rs 3 per litre on petrol exports, while simultaneously reducing the levy on diesel to Rs 16.5 per litre and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) to Rs 16 per litre, effective May 16.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed immediate demand-side measures, including remote work, lower speed limits, and reduced air travel, to mitigate the impact of a global oil supply shock caused by Middle East disruptions.
Analysts predict that the ongoing conflict in West Asia, crude oil prices, and global trends will significantly influence the Indian stock market in the upcoming holiday-shortened week. Foreign investor activity and rupee movement will also be crucial.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed almost unchanged in a volatile session as investors reacted cautiously to mounting geopolitical headwinds and a significant jump in crude oil prices, with Brent crude surging to USD 94.68 per barrel.
China is slowing down, Europe is barely afloat and the US is meeting a larger chunk of its own demand.
Despite the recovery to above $40 levels after hitting $28-29 in Jan, worries of over-supply in the face of weak demand remain.
India's trade account could come under pressure and there could be an inflation push if crude oil prices remain above the $90 per barrel (Brent) for a prolonged period since India imports over 85 per cent of its oil and roughly 50 per cent of its gas. A rebound in economic activity is bound to lead to higher fuel demand. While India is the third-largest importer of crude, it is a net exporter of refined products, which helps to compensate to some degree.
Indian equities on Dalal Street saw volatility as global market trends and fresh tariff concerns linked to Donald Trump impacted investor sentiment. Track Sensex, Nifty50 movement and key market drivers for March 30, 2026.
One of the reasons is that the retail prices are not bench-marked to crude but their respective international benchmark prices.
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